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Window of opportunity open for Meredith home sellers… for now

3/22/2019

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If you own a single family home in Meredith and have been waiting for a good time to sell, a window of opportunity is wide open. It’s clearly a seller’s market, enriched by many conditions that are also presently favorable for buyers. But the window to profit from this seller’s market won’t stay open indefinitely.

It’s an opportune time to sell in Meredith because home prices are peaking, the number of “days on market” has plunged, interest rates and economic conditions are excellent for buyers, the inventory of for-sale homes is low, and marketing technology has never been better.

First, let’s look at each condition favorable for sellers.

In 2018 the median "closed" price for Meredith single family homes surpassed the previous peak attained back in 2008. This represents the highest median home sale values in Meredith in over a decade, since 2006, when many prices were artificially inflated by the loose lending practices that led to the subprime mortgage crisis.

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Additionally, with just 35 median days on market in 2018, single family homes in Meredith sold at the fastest pace in at least 21 years.

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Regarding inventory, there are presently only 33 single family homes actively listed for sale in Meredith, a town the U.S. Census Bureau estimates to have 6,384 residents and 4,654 housing units.

A low supply of for-sale homes advantages sellers, as buyers become more willing to overlook perceived shortcomings in a home (like dated bathrooms and cabinets) when there is little inventory to choose from. The result can often be multiple offers, stronger negotiating position and higher prices for sellers.
Finally, marketing tech for sellers has never been better. Imagine how great your home will look when professionally marketed with Roche Realty Group’s capabilities for drone aerial videos, which dramatically highlight the beauty of the Lakes Region (see below), and Matterport® 3D virtual tours, which give buyers an amazing, Google Street-like navigation of home interiors.
Next, let’s examine why the window of opportunity is wide open for buyers to make strong offers on your Meredith single family home.
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According Freddie Mac, mortgage interest rates have declined to 4.35%, which is the lowest rate since February 2018. This is welcome news for buyers who had grown accustomed to abnormally low interest rates, and watched in dismay as they neared five percent in mid-November, 2018, a rate many had not seen in years, or ever. Consequently, the number of consumers applying for mortgages is on the rise.

Buyers also have additional reasons to be confident… for now. According to a recent CNN Poll, 71% of respondents said the nation's economy is in good shape. That’s the highest percentage to say so since February 2001. The survey also found that 42 percent of respondents said their personal financial situation is better off today than it was three years ago.

These survey results correspond with several other economic indicators that give buyers confidence. For example:
  • Our nation’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew 3.1 percent from the fourth quarter of 2017 to the fourth quarter of 2018, the fastest growth pace in 13 years.
  • More than 2.6 million jobs were created in 2018, and the number of job openings surpassed the number of unemployed workers for the first time on record.
  • The unemployment rate hit 3.7 percent in September 2018, a near 50-year low.
  • The unemployment rate remained at or below 4 percent for the past 12 months, the longest streak in nearly five decades.
  • Hourly wages grew 3.4 percent over the last 12 months, the fastest pace since 2009.

So it’s a great time to list a home in Meredith, but these conditions cannot persist indefinitely. What goes up must come down, including windows of opportunity. Let me give you some reasons why.

Consider that home prices in Meredith have far exceeded income growth in New Hampshire and Massachusetts, our two largest buyer markets.

Meredith home prices spiked 26 percent between 2010 and 2017. During that same period real median household income growth in New Hampshire was stagnant, and in Massachusetts income grew just 6.7 percent. When homes become overvalued, buyers pause until prices correct.

For example, Meredith median closed prices plunged more than 34 percent between the previous peak in 2006 and the market bottom in 2010. Those who missed the opportunity to sell during that window opening had to absorb painful losses or wait more than 12 long years for values to recover. That would be the equivalent of a $123,000 loss in value from 2018 median home prices in Meredith.

While the news on interest rates is good for 2019 (on Wednesday the Federal Reserve signaled that it likely will not raise rates for the remainder of the year), mortgage rates are influenced by the Fed’s adjustments to interest rates, and many officials at Wednesday’s Fed meeting hinted that a rate increase is likely in 2020.

It’s undeniable that the economy has flourished in the last two to three years, but economies move in cycles, just like real estate markets. Another recession is inevitable, a matter of when, not if.

According to the Fortune media group, “The risk of a recession is seen at a six-year high. In fact, more than three-quarters of corporate chief financial officers expect one by the end of 2020.” This outlook is shared by nearly half of the real estate experts and economists who responded to a recent Zillow survey. The prospect of recession in 2020 makes spring 2019 an excellent time to list.

Tom Peters, esteemed author and expert on business management practices, once said: “If a window of opportunity appears, don’t pull down the shade.”

If you own a single family home in Meredith and have been waiting for a good time to sell, a window of opportunity is wide open. Generally, Meredith homes are selling at peaking prices and the fastest speeds on record. It's clearly a seller's market due to strong buyer demand and a limited supply for for-sale homes.

If you’re curious about how much money you could earn for your Meredith home in the best seller’s market in over a decade, contact me… before the window slams shut!
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Moultonborough homes sold at highest prices, fastest pace ever

3/16/2019

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It’s a historical time to sell a single-family home in Moultonborough, New Hampshire. Data suggest conditions are record breaking… but they won’t last forever.

2018 prices set a new record in Moultonborough. Last year’s $406,750 median "closed" price for single family homes bested the previous record set in 2006, by more than $14,000. This set the highest median closed price since 1997, which is as far back as data go in the New England Real Estate Network Multiple Listing Service database.

In other words, we’re going into Spring and Summer of 2019 with sales prices for Moultonborough single family homes the highest they’ve ever been, making it a historical opportunity to sell.

But prices won’t continue to climb at this pace forever. Real estate moves in cycles: home prices go up and down based on a variety of factors.

For example, consider the aftermath to the previous peak in 2006. Moultonborough single family home values eventually plunged a whopping 37 percent by the market bottom in 2013. That would be equivalent to a $150,000 loss in value from 2018’s median price. Sellers who missed the chance to sell at the previous peak had to either painfully absorb the loss in value or wait with regret more than decade for home prices to recover to 2006 levels.

The current upward trend in home price is not sustainable for one simple reason: Moultonborough home value increases are far exceeding income increases in New Hampshire and Massachusetts, our two largest buyer markets.
For example, Moultonborough median home prices jumped 41 percent between 2013 (the most recent market bottom) and 2017 (the most recent year for which income data are available). During that same period, real median household income in New Hampshire and Massachusetts increased just 2.7 percent and 11 percent, respectively. When you consider that already-rising Moultonborough median single family closed prices spiked another 16 percent between 2017 and 2018, you can see why I think it’s more likely for area home prices to stall or decline, than to continue climbing at these historical rates for much longer.

What goes up must come down. If you’re still not convinced we’re at or near the peak of the seller’s market, let me add another consideration that seriously impacts buyers: interest rates. The Federal Reserve hiked interest rates four times in 2018, and has plans to increase them more than once in 2019.

Mortgage interest rates tend to echo changes made by the Fed. Higher home prices and rising interest rates result in higher monthly payments for buyers, which in turn slows homebuyer activity, which in turn, causes skyrocketing home prices to stall or even reverse course.

But there’s good news, a window of opportunity. Mortgage rates recently declined to the lowest level in over a year, making it an even more compelling time for home sellers to list, right now. This low rate will be welcomed by buyers, but it will not last.

Finally, much of the historic price growth in Moultonborough is predicated upon the historic economic boom this nation has seen since January, 2017. But like the real estate market, the economy also moves in cycles. Another recession is inevitable, a matter of when, not if. Nearly half of the real estate experts and economists who responded to a recent Zillow survey predicted 2020 for the next recession.

That’s why I think right now, Spring 2019, offers a historical opportunity to sell, while the selling is good.
If high prices alone aren’t enough to convince you, consider another key indicator of a seller’s market: the history-making pace of “days on market” required to sell.

2018 saw another record in Moultonborough. In addition to the highest median closed prices, last year the median number of days on market for Moultonborough single family homes was just 26. That’s a 42 percent drop from the already brisk clip in 2017, and the fastest sales pace in at least 21 years, possibly ever.

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The number of days on market tends to be inversely proportionate to buyer demand. A low number of days on market suggests high buyer motivation.

​My theory is that Moultonborough is especially attractive to shrewd in and out-of-state buyers seeking low property taxes in the state with the nation’s third highest rates.


There’s another important factor that makes this a great time to sell: limited inventory. In addition to the highest home values and fastest selling pace in more than two decades, Moultonborough presently has an extremely low number of houses listed. Today there are only 41 single family homes listed in Moultonborough, a town the U.S. Census Bureau estimates to have a population of 4,044 people, and 4,523 housing units.

A low supply of for-sale homes creates leverage for sellers. Buyers are more willing to overlook perceived shortcomings in a home (like dated countertops or no garage) when inventory is tight and there’s less competition. When there are fewer properties to compete with, the result can often be multiple offers, stronger negotiating position and higher prices for sellers.

By listing now (yes, in March) you can get a head start on the competition and stand out to buyers who want to begin enjoying a new Lakes Region home in time for summer 2019. Remember, many closings take 45 to 60 days to complete.

So please take action if you’ve been waiting for a great time to sell. It’s now. Moultonborough homes have been selling at the highest prices and fastest speeds in over 20 years. Inventory is low, giving sellers who list now a head start advantage before inventory and competition inevitably increase.

Contact me if you’ve considered selling your house in Moultonborough and you’re curious what your home might sell for in this seller’s market. Your home equity has risen with mortgage payments and renovations made over the years, and with all the other comparable houses that have recently sold at 2018’s higher prices.

It might be the best time in history to sell a Moultonborough single family home, and homeowners who missed the opportunity to sell at the previous peak had to wait 12 long years for home values to recover.'
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Brent Metzger is a Realtor® with Roche Realty Group. He may be reached at (603) 229-8322 or you can learn more at www.LakesRegionHomeSeller.com

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It’s an unrivaled time to sell your single family home in Gilford

3/8/2019

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If you own a single-family home in Gilford, it’s an unequalled time to sell. It’s “list opportunity or missed opportunity” time. Let me tell you why:
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Prices are peaking:
In 2018 the median "closed" price for single family homes in Gilford was the highest since 1997, which is as far back as data goes in the New England Real Estate Network Multiple Listing Service database.

In other words, sales prices for Gilford single family homes are the highest they’ve ever been.

But prices won’t climb forever:
Don’t just take my word for it… ask someone who didn’t sell at the previous property value peak in 2006. Gilford single family home values subsequently plummeted 30 percent over the next three years (that’d be like a $92,100 loss in value from today’s median price) and sellers had to either absorb the loss or wait with regret for well more than a decade for prices to recover.

Let me make a very simple case for why I think home prices are more likely to stall or decline than continue to climb much further.

Let’s compare two factors: Gilford home prices and real median household income in New Hampshire and Massachusetts, where the preponderance of out-of-state buyers come from.

Gilford house prices grew 115.2 percent between 1999 (the market bottom) and 2017 (the most recent year for which income data is available).

During that same timespan, median household income in New Hampshire and Massachusetts grew just 10.04 percent and 12.75 percent, respectively.

In short, home price growth in Gilford is far exceeding income growth in New Hampshire and Massachusetts. Add the chilling effects recent interest rate hikes have had on homebuyers and it becomes difficult to imagine that home prices will somehow continue to magically and indefinitely outpace earnings at the rate they have been.

Think about it… how do you buy a house you can’t afford, now that banks aren’t offering home loans to just about anyone, including unqualified buyers, like they did during the subprime mortgage crisis in 2006? You don’t.

​Buyers become forced to wait until: a) prices drop, b) income skyrockets, or c) lenders repeat the mistakes of the past and offer mortgages that allow buyers to purchase more home than they can realistically afford.

That’s why I think the divergence between home price and income growth suggests a coming correction in property values. Here’s another way to drive the point home: household income grew 10 to 12 percent in our two biggest buyer markets (NH and MA) over 18 years, 1999 to 2017. Median Gilford house prices, on the other hand, grew more than 14 percent in just one year, between 2017 and 2018.

So if you want to sell successfully, maybe make this the last long, brutally cold winter you have to endure in New Hampshire, it’s an unparalleled time to list, based on prices alone... before they inevitably drop and you get stuck.

Days on Market are Plummeting:
If high prices alone aren’t enough to convince you, consider another key indicator: the blistering pace of “Days on Market” required to sell.

In 2018 the median number of days on market for Gilford single family homes was just 42. With the close exception of 2017 (40 median days on market), that’s the fastest pace in at least 21 years.

The number of days on market tends to be inversely proportionate to buyer demand. A low number of days on market—which we clearly have now—suggests a high amount of consumers with high motivation to buy.

Low inventory gives you a head start and advantage:
In addition to the highest home values and one of the fastest selling paces in more than two decades, Gilford presently has an extremely low number of houses listed. Today there are only 38 single family homes listed in Gilford, a town the U.S. Census Bureau estimates to have a population of 7,156 people, and 4,312 housing units.
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A low supply of for-sale homes can create serious leverage for sellers. Buyers are more willing to overlook perceived shortcomings in a home (like dated appliances or no walk-in closet) when inventory is tight and there’s less competition for their fickle affections. When there are fewer properties to compete with, the result can often be multiple offers, stronger negotiating position and higher prices for sellers.

By listing now (yes, in March) you can get a head start on the competition and stand out to buyers who want to begin enjoying a new Lakes Region home in time for summer 2019. Remember, many closings take 45 to 60 days to complete.

Interest rates are down, for now:
Yes, interest rates have climbed, paralyzing many buyers who had grown accustomed to abnormally low rates. But there’s good news. According to Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic, a leading property analytics provider, "Fixed-rate mortgage rates have dropped 0.6 percentage points since November 2018 and today are lower than they were a year ago. With interest rates at this level, we expect a solid homebuying season this spring."

So please take note if you’ve been waiting for a great time to sell. It’s now. Prices are at their apex and days on market have plummeted. Inventory is low, giving sellers who list now a head start advantage before inventory and competition inevitably increase.

​Give me a call if you’ve considered selling your house in Gilford and you’re curious what your home might sell for in this seller’s market.

It might be the best time to sell a Gilford single family home in over 20 years, and homeowners who missed the opportunity to sell at the previous peak had to wait 12 long years for home values to recover. It’s truly “list opportunity or missed opportunity” time.
 
Brent Metzger is a Realtor® with Roche Realty Group. He may be reached at (603) 229-8322 or you can learn more at www.LakesRegionHomeSeller.com
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    Brent Metzger is actively licensed as a sales agent (# 072494) with the New Hampshire Office of Professional Licensure, Certification/NH Real Estate Commission, and is affiliated with brokerage Roche Realty Group / 97 Daniel Webster Highway Meredith, NH 03253 / office: (603) 279-7046
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